I’ve seen some pretty bold claims about what aviation will look like in the future, and for whatever reason, most of them focus on the year 2050. For example, in 2021, the International Air Transport Association collaborated with representatives from airlines around the world to commit to reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Aviation experts have also predicted that there will be 161,000 electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) in use globally by the same year. 

Well, whatever special powers the year 2050 may or may not have, it’s as good a target as any to speculate about a number of emerging aviation trends. I’d like to take a closer look at how the aviation industry is working to meet those predictions and what’s working versus what’s not. Spoiler: a lot needs to change to make the experts right. Then I’ll discuss other trends that will likely grow more and more common and the additional technologies you can expect to see in aviation in the next three decades.

Net zero by 2050?

Let’s start with the prediction of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Is it realistic? The idea of reaching net zero means that aviation professionals are serious about achieving a balance between how much greenhouse gasses planes give off versus how much of those gasses the aviation industry is removing from the atmosphere. There are various efforts in place to reach net zero by 2050, but many experts believe progress is too slow and current methodologies are somewhat lacking. 

For example, one common way aviation folks are working to get to net zero by 2050 is through something called carbon offsetting: making up for emissions by funding projects that reduce emissions elsewhere. Some common methods include reforestation and investing in renewable or electric energy sources. 

Unfortunately, carbon offsetting is pretty much a dead end based on cost alone. The cost of carbon offsetting to reach net zero by 2050 could cost at least $1 trillion. The global airline industry produced only around $26 billion in profits in 2019, so where is all the money for carbon offsetting going to come from? 

Some airlines are asking passengers to help foot the bill by instituting fees or voluntary offset programs. But a 2021 study showed that, while 39 percent of respondents claimed they would be willing to pay extra for flight tickets to help offset emissions, only 1 percent of consumers actually opt into voluntary offsetting programs. Clearly, the aviation industry needs to find other strategies. 

So let’s focus on methods that actually work. Sustainable fuels, electronic aircraft, and reducing unnecessary short flights each have a much higher degree of demonstrable success. Sustainable fuels emit 80 percent less greenhouse gas than some conventional fuels. What’s more, Boeing could potentially be ready to fully integrate sustainable fuels into all of its aircraft by 2030. Clearly, there could be a lot more progress here by 2050. Also, improved flight route planning can make significant improvements in fuel consumption. This requires improved aeronautical data and systems, but all aviation aeronautical data must be certified to the RTCA EUROCAE aeronautical data standard DO-200B, which is rapidly happening today.  

But can that get us to net zero? Maybe not by 20505. That’s probably a lot farther off. 

Urban air mobility

It’s far more likely that eVTOLs will become commonplace by 2050, and the world may even see urban air mobility (UAM) become a reality by that time. UAM means that small electric aircraft – i.e., eVTOLs – will provide an air taxi service of sorts in urban areas. This means that eVTOLs could make urban transportation clean and cost-effective while allowing passengers to bypass road traffic. 

An eVTOL is basically a small helicopter or a large drone. Currently, many companies are developing viable passenger eVTOLs, including Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Beta Technologies, and even traditional automotive companies like Toyota and Hyundai. However, these aircraft must comply with the FAA and EASA avionics software standard DO-178C, inclusive of the data they process, which is rapidly occurring. I’m already very excited about how far the technology has come. 

Because let’s be honest, these new designs look amazing, and they hold a lot of promise. The only real hurdle that I see isn’t the technology at all, in regulations. Specifically, it’s the fact that compliance regulations are so far behind what aircraft today are actually capable of. 

For example, because of the ongoing pilot shortage, eVTOLs would likely have to be automated to facilitate UAM. Right now, regulations simply don’t permit fully autonomous passenger aircraft without a pilot onboard. Similarly, regulations for fully electric passenger planes have yet to be solidified, though they’re in the works. And the list goes on. Still, I believe that the necessary regulations could be in place over the next decade or two. As a result, UAM by 2050 is a definite possibility. That is if the government can get its regulatory act together in time. 

Aviation Technologies of the Future

Two other technologies you can expect to see a lot more of in the future of aviation are artificial intelligence (AI) and augmented reality (AR). Augmented reality is an increasingly commonplace technology that lays a computer-generated image over real objects or surfaces to provide an immersive, dual digital-physical experience. Airlines are already using AR to train pilots and improve the manufacturing process, and that will only become more common over the coming years. 

Pilots are also using AI to predict the most energy-efficient flight paths based on minute-by-minute performance and weather data. AI also fuels predictive maintenance, which uses both historical data and data from various inputs like temperature or vibration sensors to identify any abnormalities that might indicate an impending failure. Then, maintenance personnel can work to fix the problem before any damage occurs, improving reliability and decreasing downtime. 

I’m very invested in the future of aviation, and I believe that it’s going in the right direction. I’m interested in seeing how the nations aiming for net zero emissions by 2050 are going to work toward that goal. I’m excited for the day that I can call for an electric air taxi to pick me up and take me a couple of miles to my next destination. And, honestly, if I have to wait three decades for that, then I think I can say it’s well worth the wait.