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Countering drones


In May 2018, Time magazine boldly proclaimed, "Drones are here to stay. Get used to it." Indeed, the past few years have witnessed remarkable advancements in the realm of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and robotics. However, despite these strides, we have only scratched the surface of the potential applications of drones. Over the next five years, we can anticipate a widespread integration of civilian drones into our daily lives, revolutionizing urban mobility, delivery services, crisis management, disaster recovery, and emergency supply, among other areas.

Moreover, from a military perspective, we find ourselves in the midst of what experts are calling the "second drone age." In this era, all entities, from conventional military forces to terrorist organizations and non-state actors, are incorporating drone technologies into their standard tactics and operations. This shift challenges the traditional air superiority enjoyed by many military powers in conflicts worldwide. For instance, groups like ISIL/Daesh have utilized consumer-grade drones for planning and executing battlefield attacks. In addition, the Gaza Strip has become a prominent theatre for modern drone warfare, with both the Israeli Army and Hamas deploying drones extensively.

However, two significant events have recently shaped the global discourse on drones and their security implications. In December 2018, just days before the New Year, a rogue drone incursion disrupted operations at Gatwick Airport near London. This incident resulted in millions of euros in financial losses for airport operators, airlines, and passengers, highlighting the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to drone disruptions.

In September 2019, Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a massive coordinated drone strike on two oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia. This attack caused substantial physical damage and led to a loss of oil production capabilities, accounting for approximately six per cent of the world's oil supply. The repercussions of these two events underscore the potential for asymmetric engagement, where parties with limited resources can inflict significant losses on more powerful adversaries.

These events, while sharing the theme of asymmetric engagement, differ significantly in nature. The Gatwick incident likely involved an inexpensive recreational drone operated near the airport. Conversely, the attack on Saudi Arabia was carried out using a combination of fixed-wing drones and ballistic missiles, executed from hundreds of kilometres away. Consequently, countermeasures for these two scenarios are vastly distinct. The market currently offers a range of Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) solutions, such as Electronic Warfare, net-based technologies, and drone-on-drone defences, to address the first case. In contrast, defending against an airstrike, as in the Saudi Arabia attack, aligns more closely with traditional air defence strategies.

 

Uncontrolled Developments

The pace of drone technology development is rapid, and future commercial technologies promise to challenge current C-UAS solutions. These innovations include cargo drones, novel Command and Control concepts, increased autonomy, swarming capabilities, advanced collision avoidance systems, and multi-modal operations. Furthermore, the advent of the Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G technology opens up the possibility of operating drones remotely via the Internet, potentially allowing the simultaneous launch of drone swarms over major European airports.

The positive news is that C-UAS technology is also evolving becoming more intelligent and sophisticated. Modern systems integrate various technologies, incorporating machine learning, sensor fusion, cognitive and holographic radars, and augmented reality. Financial investments in this field are substantial, with the U.S. Department of Defense allocating approximately 900 million dollars to C-UAS solutions in 2019. It is projected that the global market for these solutions will reach 6.6 billion U.S. dollars by 2024. This dynamic sets the stage for a competitive race between drone manufacturers and counter-drone developers, spurring innovation across various domains, including electronic and cyber warfare, as well as kinetic and energy-based weaponry.

 

Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems: A Wicked Problem

Despite these advancements, experts, industry leaders, and military personnel agree that there is no single "silver bullet" solution to the drone threat. Instead, a combination of technologies and tactics is the way forward. This is especially crucial in an operational context where the time from detecting a drone to reacting to it is mere seconds, leaving little room for error.

To address this complex challenge, future C-UAS products are likely to explore autonomous decision-making approaches. While current systems offer a "human-in-the-loop" operating mode, there is a growing need for autonomous capabilities, particularly in tasks that overwhelm human operators, such as processing vast amounts of data or activating effectors in a matter of seconds.

 

Coping with a "Wicked Problem"

Countering drones presents what experts call a "wicked problem" — a challenge that defies traditional sequential and logical approaches. Wicked problems cannot be solved outright; they can only be managed. Taming the C-UAS problem requires a deep understanding, forward-thinking, and a multifaceted approach that encompasses preparedness, innovation, cooperation, and adaptability.

 

NATO's Approach

NATO recognizes the gravity of the drone threat and the importance of a collective response. To bolster preparedness, NATO emphasizes a common understanding of the threat and a comprehensive situational awareness. This involves continuous threat scanning and strategic foresight to inform policies, enhance Alliance resilience, and improve planning processes.

In countering the UAS threat, cooperation is essential at multiple levels:

 

  • Technical Level: Integrated solutions are crucial, as single countermeasures are often ineffective without a broader context.

 

  • Tactical Level: Countermeasures must be precise and effective, minimizing collateral damage.

 

  • Operational Level: C-UAS efforts need seamless integration across various domains.

 

  • Strategic Level: A whole-of-government approach is necessary to address the threat effectively.

 

Innovation and out-of-the-box thinking are equally vital. This includes rapidly transitioning novel concepts from the realm of Science and technology to practical battlefield applications, innovative acquisition approaches, fostering a competitive and cooperative environment for academia, industry, and operational communities, and reimagining traditional tactics and approaches.

NATO has been proactive in addressing the C-UAS challenge since 2019. A dedicated working group has brought together expertise from Allied nations to facilitate cooperation and problem-solving. Key achievements include promoting technical and operational interoperability, coordinating innovative projects, and conducting trials and exercises.

 

Conclusion

The proliferation of drones poses multifaceted challenges, ranging from technological advancements to ethical questions. It forces nations and organizations to adapt and innovate rapidly to secure critical assets and personnel. NATO's approach to countering drones serves as a blueprint for addressing emerging and disruptive technologies in the future, highlighting the importance of cooperation, innovation, and adaptability in confronting complex, "wicked" problems.

 

 

FAQs

What are some common countermeasures against consumer-grade drones? 

Countermeasures include Electronic Warfare, net-based technologies, and drone-on-drone defences.

 

How fast is the development of drone technology progressing? 

Drone technology is advancing rapidly, with future developments including cargo drones, increased autonomy, and swarming capabilities.

 

How is NATO addressing the drone threat? 

NATO is taking a comprehensive approach that involves a common understanding of the threat, technical cooperation, tactical precision, operational integration, and a whole-of-government strategy.

 

What role does innovation play in countering drones? 

Innovation is crucial in swiftly adapting to evolving drone technologies. It involves transitioning novel concepts into practical solutions, fostering cooperation, and disrupting traditional approaches.

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